China Economist 2022年最新目录和摘要

内容摘要

Global Risk Appetite, US Economic Policy Uncertainties and Cross-Border Capital Flow

Tan Xiaofen (谭小芬), Cao Qianqian (曹倩倩) and Zhao Qian (赵茜)

Abstract：Based on the global asset portfolio model, this paper created a panel threshold model using EPFR fund data to empirically test the non-linear spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainties on cross-border capital low for emerging economies. Our study led to the following indings: (1) When the level of global investor risk tolerance is high, rising US EPU will induce a capital inlow into emerging economies, as manifested in the “portfolio rebalancing effect.” When the level of global investor risk tolerance is below a critical threshold, this gives rise to risk aversion and emerging economies will experience net capital outlow, i.e. the “light to quality effect”. (2) Equity fund investors have a lower risk tolerance threshold than bond fund investors. (3) According to our heterogeneity analysis, more attention should be paid to monitoring capital low through actively managed funds, ETF funds, and retail investor funds. The economy should increase inancial eficiency and economic resiliency to mitigate capital outlow pressures from the external environment.

Keywords： Cross-border fund capital flow, global risk appetite, US economic policy uncertainty, panel threshold model

Environmental Technical Standards and the Green Transition of China’s Manufacturing Industry

Wan Panbing (万攀兵) , Yang Mian (杨冕) and Chen Lin (陈林)

Abstract：Distinct from the existing literature conforming to the Porter hypothesis which emphasizes the technological innovation mechanism, this paper examines the mechanism of technological transformation through which environmental technical standards inluence the manufacturing industry in reducing emissions and improving efficiency (i.e. green transition). Furthermore, drawing upon enterprise samples from the databases of Chinese Industrial Enterprises and Chinese Industrial Pollution Sources from Major Monitored Enterprises, it empirically validates the results of the theoretical analysis. Overall, our research reveals that environmental technical standards can propel manufacturing enterprises to reduce pollution and increase productivity by following an incremental path of technological transformation, thereby achieving a green transition. Moreover, environmental technical standards indirectly promote green technology innovation in the upstream equipment manufacturing enterprises. Heterogeneity analysis further shows that environmental technical standards have a stronger effect of green transition on those companies with higher pollution emission intensity, lower productivity, slower capital renewal and stronger inancing capacity prior to implementing the environmental policies.

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Keywords：Environmental technical standards green transition, technological transformation, Porter hypothesis

Technology Progress Path and Catch- up Strategy for Late-Moving Large Countries

Yuan Li (袁礼), Wang Linhui (王林辉) and Ouyang Yao (欧阳峣)

Abstract：Based on the endogenous technology progress framework for late-moving large countries, this paper simulates the effects of market size on technology progress path and technology catch-up, and inds that under the strategy of combining innovation with imitation, the increase of market size will restrain the convergence of economies towards technology frontier and deepen their reliance on imitation. Under the strategy of replacing imitation with innovation, there is a non-uniform U-shaped threshold effect for market size to inluence technology progress path and catch-up, and the threshold for the shift of technology progress path lags behind that for technology catch-up. Hence, we should follow technology catch-up as the benchmark and timely adjust our innovation strategy to unleash the advantages of economies of scale for innovation. The innovation-driven development strategy is a choice compatible with China’s changing market size. However, since China remains in a transition from a super-large economy to a super-strong one, the contribution of innovation will decrease at irst before increasing afterwards.

Keywords：Technology catch-up, market size, innovation, innovation strategy

China’s Rising Labor Remuneration and Evolving National Savings Rate

Yang Tianyu (杨天宇) and Zhu Guang (朱光)

Abstract：Cash low statements suggest that China’s rising labor remuneration has had a major impact on its national savings rate since 2008. Accordingly, this paper proposes labor remuneration hypotheses to explain the evolving trend of China’s national savings rate. We hypothesize that: (1) The certainty and predictability of household labor remuneration have led to excess sensitivity to consumption, with a corresponding decrease in the household savings rate; (2) rising household labor remuneration means a greater share of labor remuneration is paid by irms, resulting in a smaller corporate savings rate; (3) the increase in the payment of labor remuneration by irms as a share of national disposable income has resulted in the government spending more on social welfare and public services resulting in the government having a declining share of disposable income, less propensity to save, and a falling government savings rate. Using China’s provincial panel data of 2008-2016, we performed an empirical test with the minimum wage standard as the instrumental variable to verify the above hypothesis. To cope with economic growth pressures, China needs to shift from an investment-driven to a consumption-driven growth model and prioritize investment eficiency over quantity.

Keywords：National savings rate, labor remuneration, evolving trend, cash low statement

Global Value Chain Optimization Effect of the Belt and Road Initiative - From the Perspective of Improving Participating Countries’ Position in the Division of Labor

Dai Xiang (戴翔) and Song Jie (宋婕)

Abstract：To promote the reconstruction and optimization of the global value chains (GVCs), it is essential to tackle the prominent contradictions and problems including inequality of opportunity and status in the evolution of the GVC division of labor. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) promoted by China has obtained remarkable achievements in this regard; however, there lacks sound theoretical and empirical evidence as to whether the BRI has driven the GVCs to develop towards a more equitable direction. This paper employs the difference-in-differences model to empirically analyze the GVC optimization effect of the BRI. In addition, on the basis of the so-called “ive-pronged approach” index, the paper uses the mediating effect model to test the mechanism of inluence. The empirical results suggest that the BRI has helped participating countries along the routes to increase their position in GVC division of labor signiicantly through the mediating mechanism of four out of the “ ive-pronged approach”, namely policy coordination, road connectivity, unimpeded trade, and currency convertibility. The strengthening of and closer people-to-people ties has not yet appeared to be an effective mediator, and a possible explanation may be that its inluence is indirect and lagging.

Keywords：Belt and Road Initiative, mutual beneit, global value chains, a community with a shared future for mankind

China’s Institutional Strength, Monetary Policy Coordination and Fiscal Crowding-in Effect

Li Rong (李戎) and Liu Lifei (刘力菲)

Abstract：As two main tools of macroeconomic policies, coordination and conflict between iscal and monetary policies have been paid considerable attention by researchers. Under a structural vector autoregressive model that incorporates fiscal and monetary policies, this paper analyzes the monetary policy response to iscal shocks. Our study inds that during the occurrence of a iscal shock, the growth rate of broad money supply M2 substantially increased, indicating the adoption of an expansionary monetary policy by the monetary authority to iscal policy expansion. Based on this empirical inding, this paper improves the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate the iscal policy effects under China’s monetary policy coordination. Our analysis shows that monetary policy coordination will significantly boost the economic stimulus effect of fiscal policy, generating a iscal crowding-in effect. From the perspective of China’s institutional strength, this conclusion offers a theoretical explanation on the empirical fact of the iscal crowding- in effect uncovered in the research literature, and offers a policy reference for making the proactive fiscal policy more efficient and effective. This paper suggests that China’s policymakers give full play to the country’s institutional strength by coordinating iscal and monetary policies for high-quality economic development.

Keywords：Fiscal policy, monetary policy rules, monetary and iscal policy coordination, iscal multiplier

Agglomeration Shadows amid China’s Urbanization: From a High-Speed Railway Perspective

Zhang Jing (张晶) and Chen Haishan (陈海山)

Abstract：Using China’s county-level panel data of 2007-2016, this paper veriies the existence of agglomeration shadows from an infrastructure development perspective. With high-speed railway (HSR) launch as a quasi-natural experiment, we ind that the launch of HSR lines was followed by a decrease in GDP per capita of counties along the route by 2.6 percentage points. This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests and the treatment of potential endogeneity problem. Mechanism analysis suggests that such effect is the most signiicant for counties within a distance of 97 to 195 km to the nearest central city, which is a manifestation of the “agglomeration shadows.” We also uncover that HSR would spur economic growth for counties with favorable endowments. However, HSR also has a signiicant negative impact on permanent population in counties. When change in permanent population is taken into account, HSR’s negative impact on the countywide economy becomes smaller. Shrinking permanent population in counties after HSR launch is a manifestation of such agglomeration shadows. HSR has facilitated the free flow of population. These findings point to the possibility that HSR may have induced regional economic equilibrium amid agglomeration.

Keywords：Urbanization, high-speed railway launch, agglomeration shadows, regional equilibrium

China Economist （中文刊名：《中国经济学人》）是由中国社会科学院主管、中国社会科学院工业经济研究所主办的面向全球发行的中英文学术期刊Cryptomate。China Economist创刊于2006年3月，始终致力于向全球传递中国经济学与管理学最前沿研究进展，搭建中外学者相互交流的学术平台和研究阵地，向全世界宣传能够代表中国人民根本利益诉求的研究成果，促进国外读者更好地了解中国，不断增强我国的国际影响力和国际话语权。《中国经济学人》先后被EconLit、EBSCO、ProQuest、SCOPUS等全球主流、权威数据库及索引系统收录，入选中国社会科学院中国人文社会科学期刊（AMI），是“代表我国人文社会科学英文刊最高水平”的期刊。

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